BNEF: New Energy Outlook (NEO) 2019

Jun 18, 2019 – The world gradually moves from 70% of fossil fuels in 2018 to around 70% of zero-carbon energy in 2050 when wind and solar will jointly generate almost 50% of the world’s electricity, BNEF analytical agency said in its New Energy Outlook (NEO) 2019 report.

By 2050, sun power will account for 22% of the world’s electricity, and wind will produce 26% of the global electrical power. The two renewables will be complemented with the hydropower industry which will be constrained by a lack of resources, and nuclear power with its lack of flexibility and high costs.

Around 360 GW of batteries will add to the energy market in the next 30 years to help shift excess power to the non-operation period. This includes dynamic EV charging with the vehicles plugged in to distribute the power smoothly over peaks of consumption.

A total of USD13.3 trillion will be invested in the construction of over 15,000 GW of new power capacities until 2050, of which 77% will be renewables, including USD5.3 trillion invested in wind, USD4.2 trillion in solar, and USD843 billion in batteries. Investment in new fossil fuel facities are seen at below USD2 trillion. The development of power grids will need some USD11.4 trillion of investment in the next 30 years thanks to rising demand and consumption.

Coal production collapses everywhere except for China, India and Southeastern Asia. It will peak in 2026, and by 2032 it will be surpassed by solar and wind electricity. Gas-fired power generation will double until 2050.

The U.S. will continue to replace aging coal and nuclear facilities with reneweables and gas. Coal and nuclear will almost disappear from the energy portfolio by 2050. Reneweables penetration will reach 43% in 2050 thanks to the support of utility-scale batteries.

Mexico’s overall installed capacity will rise 6 times until 2050. Utility-scale PV solar generation will add most, overshooting 100 GW until 2045, followed by onshore wind which will rise to 57 GW. Batteries will add 23 GW. As a result, 84% of the country’s power will be produced from zero-carbon sources.

Brazil’s rapid growth of the renewable energy market will also provide transition from thermal generation. Hydropower will still account for 43% of the energy mix, but solar and wind capacities will grow significantly.

Europe’s renewables expansion will ensure 90% of electricity mix by 2040 with wind and solar jointly contributing 80%.

Germany’s power generation from renewable sources will exceed 82% in the next decade. By 2050, renewables will ensure 92% of electricty production. Decarbonizing beyond this point is difficult as a certain amount of gas-fired facility are necessary to stabilize the system during peak and out-of-operation periods.

Onshore and offshore wind production grows fast in the U.K. to reach 64% of the country’s electricity generation by 2030. By 2050, generation from renewables will surge to 87% thanks to 183 GW of new wind and solar and 13 GW of new battery facilities. EV demand will amount to 24% of all the electricity used in 2050.

Coal-fired power production and emissions will peak in 2028 in China while renewables penetration will reach 37%. The state will keep its position of the global leader in terms of the size of the renewable energy market. The share of solar and wind will increase to 48% from the current 8% of China’s total generation by 2050. The state will install a total of 1.3 TW of solar PV and 1.2 TW of wind by that time which will account for 17% of all PV and 35% of all wind globally.

Japan’s reliance on coal will remain relatively heavy in the next 30 years. Coal, renewables and nuclear restarts will push expensive oil and gas out of the energy mix. By 2050, renewables will account for more than 75% of electricity generation with solar and wind contributing 32% each as compared with 8% in 2019. Electricity demand will drop 10% in the state by 2050. Japan will become one of the most decentralized power systems in the world with around 30% of the capacity behind-the-meter thanks to strong demand for small-size PV installations and batteries.

India’s growing demand for electrical power will force the market to grow more than six times by 2050. India will outrun the U.S. to become the world’s second-biggest energy system by 2044. India has the cheapest solar and wind power in the world, but coal still remains competitive. 170 GW of new coal facilities will be commissioned by 2050. The state will also build 1.5 TW of renewables with solar PV accounting for 70% of the capacities, to contribute 67% to the electricity mix. India’s emissions will peak in 2038, and then fall 11% from the peak by 2050, which is still 50% more than now.

South Korea’s energy portfolio will move from 64% of coal and nuclear generation seen now to more than 71% of gas and renewables in 2050. Installed capacities will double with offshore wind accounting for 50% of generation. Around 70% of newly added installations will be renewable, including 93 GW of PV solar and 69 GW of wind.

Australia may become the most decentralized economy in energy terms in the world with behind-the-meter PV and batteries making up 38% of the overall capacity. Coal generation will be almost ceased in the state by 2050.

Focused on the power system, the New Energy Outlook (NEO) integrates the expertise of over 65 market and technology specialists in 12 countries.