BNEF: Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019

Jun 6, 2019 – EVs will account for 57% of all sales in the passenger transport segment and for over 30% of the world’s passenger vehicles in 2040, analytical company Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) said in a its Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 report.

According to BNEF, a total of above 2 million electric vehicles were sold globally in 2018, as compared to just several thousand in 2010, and there is no evidence of deceleration of the growth. Annual sales of passenger electric vehicles are expected to reach 10 million units in 2025, 28 million units in 2030, and 56 million units in 2040.

Sales of combustion engine cars have passed the peak and may never return to the figures unless governments of large states including China decide to stimulate the market.

Such an extensive growth is directly linked to falling batteries prices. Further reduction of the prices will even up the prices for EVs and combustion engine cars by mid-2020s despite high market fragmentation depending on the geography.

Stricter environmental policies are another factor that supports the electric mobility market.

Despite the rapid growth, EVs are accounting for only 0.5% of 1.68 billion vehicles used globally. The number of passenger EVs is to rise to 500 million units, and the number of commercial vehicles to over 40 million units until 2040. The number of combustion engine cars will continue increasing until 2030, but then the trend will reverse.

Electric mobility will also expand on the markets of light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles. By 2040, 58% of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and 31% of medium-capacity trucks in China, Europe and the U.S. will be electric.

The number of electric buses used in the world amounted to over 400,000 units in 2018.

China is still the leader of the transition to electric mobility thanks to the aggressive policy of its government. The state’s share in the global EV sales will stand at 48% in 2025, 34% in 2030, and 26% in 2040. Europe and the U.S. will occupy the second and the third positions in the transition.

The process will take longer time in India and other emerging economies so the global market will soon see considerable fragmentation. In Japan, South Korea and Australia, EV sales will account for 63%, 52% and 61% of the total car sales in 2040, respectively.